According to INCON-LOGISTIC’s early-year analysis, there is an 80–90% probability that 2026 will bring a fundamental turning point in green freight forwarding at an international level.
This is not a sustainability buzzword, but the result of three strong, mutually reinforcing global trends. Taken together, these factors are expected to push the logistics industry beyond pilot projects and isolated initiatives toward large-scale, structural change.
Why 2026?
Because for the first time, three critical conditions are present simultaneously:
regulatory and market pressure,
mature and scalable technology,
and strong financial incentives.
Let’s take a closer look.
1. Strong regulatory and market pressure
Environmental expectations in freight forwarding are no longer optional — they are becoming mandatory business requirements.
From a regulatory perspective:
EU CO₂-related taxation mechanisms,
the carbon quota system in the United States,
and increasingly strict international emission targets
all point in the same direction: companies must measure, report and reduce their emissions.
From 2025 onwards, emission reporting will be mandatory for many companies. As a result, by 2026 businesses will be required to present concrete emission-reduction plans, not just declarations of intent. Those that fail to do so risk losing competitiveness.
From a market perspective:
Global e-commerce is expected to reach around 20% market share by 2026, and customers are becoming increasingly conscious of:
environmentally friendly delivery options,
transparent carbon footprint data,
and sustainable logistics solutions.
The combined effect of regulatory pressure and customer expectations is clearly pushing freight forwarding toward greener operations.
2. The technological foundations are in place
What differentiates the coming years from the past is that the industry is no longer experimenting — it is scaling up.
Over the last few years, technological developments have proven their value in:
pilot projects,
local implementations,
and specific process segments.
Today, a wide range of solutions is already available and integrable:
electric and alternative-fuel vehicle technologies,
AI- and machine-learning-based forecasting and route optimisation,
emission tracking and reporting tools,
cloud-based TMS and WMS platforms.
The key question for 2026 is no longer whether these technologies exist, but whether they can be deployed at an industrial scale.
Based on our analysis, the answer is yes.
The transition from local to regional — and later global — implementation is now a realistic scenario.
3. Financial incentives as a strong driving force
For a long time, sustainability was perceived as an additional cost. In 2026, this perception is expected to change.
According to our estimates:
freight transportation costs will increase by approximately 3–4% in 2026,
which creates significant pressure on logistics providers and shippers alike.
At the same time, rising costs strongly incentivise:
energy-efficient solutions,
optimised route and capacity management,
and sustainable investments that reduce costs in the long term.
Green logistics is increasingly becoming a rational business decision rather than a purely environmental one.
What does this mean from the customers’ perspective?
By 2026, companies that proactively prepare for increasing sustainability requirements will be in a stronger position. From the customers’ point of view, this means that logistics services will increasingly be evaluated based on:
the measurability of environmental impact,
transparent and reliable emission reporting,
energy-efficient and optimised transport solutions,
and long-term regulatory compliance.
Sustainable logistics is therefore not only an environmental issue, but also a factor that supports business security and long-term competitiveness.
Conclusion
Companies that begin preparing for these changes today — through data-driven decision-making, technological integration and sustainable partnerships — will not only comply with future requirements, but also gain a competitive advantage.
INCON-LOGISTIC’s view is clear:
2026 will not be the year of questions, but the year of decisions.