Why Is Year-End Preparation in 2025 a Key Question?
For decades, the year-end season has been the “final exam” for the logistics profession. Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas holidays, and year-end clearance sales together trigger a demand wave that puts global and domestic supply chains under pressure for months. In 2025, the challenges are sharper than ever: shifting sea routes, geopolitical uncertainties, fluctuating demand dynamics, and inflationary conditions are simultaneously shaping logistics decisions.
In Q4 2024, 6.2 billion parcels were delivered in Europe, representing a 9% increase compared to the previous year. In Hungary, e-commerce sales in December grew by 18% compared to 2023, and parcel logistics providers hit capacity limits. This trend continues in 2025, with experts forecasting an additional 7–10% growth.
These numbers send a clear message: the traditional September ordering and November stock replenishment strategy no longer works. Those who fail to prepare in time will miss out on the most important sales period of the year.
For supply chain leaders, the 2025 year-end race must be treated as a strategic priority. The keys to success: early forecasting, secured capacity, financial planning, and a reliable forwarding partner.
Global Logistics Realities in 2025
Ocean Freight: The New Dimension of Pipeline Inventory
Ocean freight remains the backbone of world trade, but in 2025 transit times have significantly increased due to geopolitical conditions. Because of Red Sea conflicts, most carriers have redirected Asia–Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds 10–15 days to transit times: instead of 35 days, it now takes 50–55 days, and with pre- and post-carriage it can even reach 60 days.
This means a drastic increase in pipeline inventory. Goods in transit must be treated as inventory since they tie up capital but are not yet sellable. For a mid-sized Hungarian importer, this may mean HUF 500 million in tied-up capital that generates no revenue for 2–3 months.
Air Freight: Speed with Exploding Costs
Air freight is the fastest solution—but at a price. In the 2024 season, spot rates rose by an average of 12%, and on some routes by as much as 20–25%. Due to demand from electronics and pharma shipments, capacity fills quickly, making advance booking essential.
In November 2024, a Hungarian electronics retailer had to bring in three containers’ worth of goods by air because delays in ocean shipping jeopardized its Black Friday campaign. The extra costs reached tens of millions of forints, but the losses from a late arrival would have been far greater.
Rail Freight: The Middle Ground
The China–Europe rail corridor offers a stable middle option: with 15–22 days transit time, it is faster than ocean but cheaper than air. For Hungarian importers, it is available via Poland and Germany, though with limited capacity.
Lesson: Timing is the greatest risk. A Hungarian household goods importer in 2024 placed an order at the end of September. Due to rerouting, the shipment only arrived in Europe on December 20 and hit the shelves in January. The company practically lost the most profitable period of the year.
Sector-Specific Impacts in Hungary
Pharmaceuticals: Success Measured in Hours
Pharma logistics is one of the most sensitive sectors. Seasonal vaccine distribution and hospital stock replenishment peak at year-end.
Cold chain: Vaccines must be transported at 2–8 °C. A single deviation can cause losses worth millions of forints.
Capacity security: Air freight must be booked months in advance, as the electronics industry locks in capacity.
Real-time monitoring: IoT sensors are now a baseline requirement.
In 2024, a Hungarian pharma importer chartered a plane to deliver vaccines to market on time. Although the cost was multiple times the normal freight rate, supply security was paramount.
Food Industry: Empty Shelves = Instant Lost Revenue
During the Christmas season, sales of sweets, chocolates, and beverages surge.
Impact of delay: If products are missing from shelves in early December, customers switch brands.
Food safety: For perishables, delays are even more critical.
In 2023, a Hungarian retailer lost 15% of turnover because a French champagne shipment arrived late.
Automotive: Vulnerable JIT Systems
In the automotive industry, a single late part can halt an entire production line.
Expedite solutions: Charters and On-Board Courier shipments.
Reputation risk: Delays mean not only financial loss but also damage to brand reliability.
In 2024, a Hungarian factory was forced to halt production for three days due to a late supplier delivery. The losses amounted to several hundred million forints per day.
Electronics: Black Friday Disrupts Everything
The electronics industry is the most exposed to seasonal demand.
Demand surge: At the end of November, webshop orders increase five- to eightfold.
Customer loss: If items are out of stock, buyers immediately turn elsewhere.
In 2024, a Hungarian webshop had to cancel over 3,000 orders because laptop shipments arrived late.
Warehousing, Workforce, and Operations
Warehouses and distribution centers face extreme strain during peak season.
Order picking: Zone-based pick & pack is 30% faster; batch picking adds further efficiency.
Cross-docking: Gets imported goods onto shelves quickly.
Automation: WMS systems reduce errors and accelerate processes.
The labor market is tight in December: seasonal workers must be contracted months in advance. In 2024, one e-commerce hub operated 20% slower due to labor shortages.
Financial and Inventory Strategy Challenges
The growth of pipeline inventory creates financial burdens.
Cash flow: Inventory ties up capital months in advance.
Financing models: Dynamic stock financing where pipeline inventory also counts as collateral.
Joint forecasting: Shared projections with the forwarding partner ease bank negotiations.
Today, financial and logistics strategies are deeply interconnected.
Technology and Transparency
The role of technology is increasingly vital.
IoT: Real-time temperature and location data.
AI: More accurate demand forecasting, incorporating consumer trends.
RPA: Faster, error-free order processing.
In 2024, a Hungarian electronics distributor introduced IoT sensors, increasing customer trust.
Risk Management and Resilience
Risks multiply during the year-end season.
Scenario planning: Optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios.
Backup solutions: Air or rail alternatives in case of ocean delays.
Partnership: Forwarding partners must act as strategic advisors.
How INCON-LOGISTIC Supports You
INCON is not only a forwarder but also a strategic partner.
Capacity security: Across ocean, air, and rail routes.
Multimodal solutions: SEA-AIR, rail alternatives.
Sector-specific support: Pharma, food, automotive, electronics.
Forecast and SOPs: Joint planning and contingency scenarios.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The 2025 year-end season will be especially critical.
Three recommendations for supply chain leaders:
Bring decisions forward—September is already too late.
Integrate financial and logistics planning.
Choose a strategic forwarding partner.
INCON-LOGISTIC offers a competitive advantage: not only executing but proactively supporting successful preparation.
👉 Contact the INCON team to plan the success of the 2025 year-end season together.