INCON’s Rapid Analysis of the Middle East Conflict and Its Impact on Freight Transport
On the fifth day of the Iran conflict, it is still unclear whether the situation will develop into a short, rapid military campaign — as some political leaders hope — or an extended conflict.
What is already clear, however, is that international freight transport is beginning to feel the effects.
Global logistics systems are highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions. The current situation is unfolding in a region that hosts one of the most critical maritime trade corridors in the world.
The team at INCON-LOGISTIC Kft. has summarized the most important developments.
The Strait of Hormuz: One of the World’s Most Critical Shipping Routes
Located along the coast of Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for global energy transport.
Through this narrow maritime corridor passes:
roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments
a significant portion of strategic raw materials and energy cargo
and a smaller but still important share of global container traffic
Due to the increasing military risk, shipping companies are already becoming more cautious.
Reports indicate that hundreds of vessels are currently waiting near the entrances of the strait, as some tanker operators hesitate to pass through the area.
This alone can already create disruptions across global supply chains.
Detours Could Add 2,000–3,000 Nautical Miles
If ships avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to security concerns, they must rely on alternative routes.
In practice this often means:
rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope
or choosing other longer maritime routes
The impact of such detours is significant:
2,000–3,000 additional nautical miles
several extra days — sometimes up to a week — of transit time
increased fuel consumption
rising operational costs
Naturally, longer routes also result in higher environmental impact due to increased emissions.
Insurance Risks: When Ships Cannot Even Depart
One of the less visible but critical consequences of military conflicts is the reaction of the marine insurance market.
In conflict zones:
war risk insurance premiums can rise rapidly
in some cases insurers may refuse to provide coverage entirely
This becomes a serious operational barrier because many vessels cannot legally depart without adequate insurance coverage.
In other words, the challenge is not only that transport becomes more expensive — in some cases shipments may not move at all.
Air Cargo Is Also Affected
The conflict does not only impact maritime transport.
Air freight operations in the region are also facing disruptions due to:
airspace restrictions
military risks
flight path adjustments
The consequences are similar to those seen in maritime transport:
longer routes
higher fuel costs
rising freight rates
reduced available capacity
This can be particularly critical for time-sensitive cargo, such as pharmaceutical shipments or high-tech components.
Lower Reliability and Higher Safety Stocks
One of the typical consequences of geopolitical tensions is reduced supply chain predictability.
When:
transit times become uncertain
routes change frequently
and transport costs rise rapidly
companies often respond in one way:
they increase their safety stock levels.
This leads to further cost impacts:
higher inventory levels
increased warehousing costs
more capital tied up in stock
In other words, the conflict does not only affect freight rates — it impacts the entire supply chain cost structure.
Oil Prices Are Already Rising
Market reactions are already visible.
Due to the uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices have already increased by roughly 10%.
This directly affects:
maritime fuel costs
air cargo operating expenses
road freight transport costs
As a result, geopolitical tensions quickly become visible across all major transport modes.
INCON Is Monitoring the Situation Around the Clock
Global logistics networks react quickly to geopolitical developments.
The team at INCON-LOGISTIC Kft. monitors and analyzes the situation 24/7, continuously evaluating alternative transport solutions for clients.
Key questions include:
which routes remain stable
which transport modes offer greater reliability
and how risks can be minimized
Experience shows that in times like these, flexibility, transparency and rapid decision-making in logistics become particularly valuable.